Forecasting
This part of the Economic Assessment applies a recognised and robust model for defining long term projections as to the potential future state of Northumberland’s economy from a scenario that assumes the broad continuation of recent economic conditions and trends.
The North East Economic Model is based upon an econometric analysis of the county’s economy, combined with data drawn from regional sources. It has been produced by St Chad’s College at Durham University with funding support from One NorthEast.
Whilst recognising that any long-term projections at a local level are subject to an extremely high degree of uncertainty, the resultant report Long-Term Employment Projections for Northumberland (PDF, 1.4MB) draws two key conclusions. Firstly, there will be significant sectoral restructuring in the county over coming years. Secondly, as Northumberland’s economic base is relatively small, it does not contain lengthy supply chains. This implies that the county’s economic activity is highly conditioned by external economic events.